Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Rene PintoBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bo Naylor doubled to right, Arias scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Arias singled to left, Giménez scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Calhoun hit sacrifice fly to left, Straw scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pinto doubled to left, Aranda scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Arozarena doubled to left, B. Lowe scored, Arozarena to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -108
- CLE +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −19 | TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +68 Elo | TB 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3037–29 | Road vs home | 33–3319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.