Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Melendez homered to right (404 feet).9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Melendez walked, Beaty scored, Garcia to second, Velázquez to third.9–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 49–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 39–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 29–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 6Garcia singled to right, Waters scored, Velázquez to second, Beaty to third.9–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 6Velázquez singled to left, Massey scored, Beaty to second, Waters to third.9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Story doubled to center, Casas scored.9–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 4Yoshida grounded out to first, Turner scored, Casas to third.8–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 4Turner singled to left, Devers scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 36–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Valdez singled to center, Duvall scored and Story scored, McGuire to third.6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Story grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Turner scored, Yoshida out at second, Duvall to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Velázquez doubled to left, Massey scored, Beaty to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Casas homered to right center (407 feet), Devers scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.3 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −9 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +50 Elo | BOS 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 12th of 3033–33 | Road vs home | 24–4329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.