Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WalterPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Verdugo homered to right (387 feet), Urías scored.2–13
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–13
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–13
- 6Velázquez homered to left center (412 feet), Fermin scored.0–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–13
- 6Perez homered to center (420 feet), Witt Jr. scored.0–11
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 10–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–11
- 6Garcia singled to left, Isbel scored.0–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 6Isbel doubled to right, Loftin scored.0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 3Loftin doubled to center, Waters scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 2Perez singled to center, Garcia scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Witt Jr. grounded out to third, Isbel scored, Garcia to second.0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Garcia singled to left, Waters scored, Isbel to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Isbel grounded into fielder's choice to second, Velázquez scored, Loftin out at second, Waters to third.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Fair odds
- BOS -117
- KC +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.1 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −24 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +77 Elo | BOS 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 12th of 3033–32 | Road vs home | 23–4329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.