Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Enmanuel ValdezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11B. Lowe homered to right (393 feet), Bethancourt scored and Díaz scored.6–8
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–8
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 11Urías reached on infield single to second, Refsnyder scored.6–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Casas singled to left, Rafaela scored, Turner to third.5–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Turner singled to left, Valdez scored, Rafaela to third.4–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Turner reached on infield single to shortstop, Rafaela scored on error, Turner safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Bruján, Devers safe at third on error.3–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 4Paredes hit by pitch, Aranda scored, B. Lowe to second, Díaz to third.2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4B. Lowe hit by pitch, Siri scored, Díaz to second, Aranda to third.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Valdez homered to right (389 feet), Wong scored.2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.9 – 5.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +5 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +69 Elo | TB 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3036–33 | Road vs home | 45–243rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–7 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.