Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Rene PintoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to third, B. Lowe scored on error, Paredes safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Tena.6–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 9Paredes singled to center, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9B. Lowe reached on infield single to pitcher, Bethancourt scored on throwing error by pitcher Morgan, Díaz safe at third on error.4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Walls singled to right, Siri scored, Walls to second.3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Laureano singled to left, Straw scored, J. Naylor to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pinto homered to left (382 feet), Walls scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Fair odds
- TB -102
- CLE +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −34 | −15 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 1.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +15 Elo | TB 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 7th of 3037–31 | Road vs home | 35–3317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–3 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.