Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yoshida homered to center (406 feet), Casas scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Casas singled to center, Devers scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Casas homered to center (419 feet), Abreu scored and Turner scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Duvall singled to left, Devers scored, Turner to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1H. Ramírez doubled to left, B. Lowe scored, H. Ramírez thrown out at third.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1B. Lowe singled to center, J. Lowe scored and Arozarena scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 5.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +4 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +55 Elo | TB 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3035–33 | Road vs home | 45–233rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–7 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.