Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Blanco singled to center, Loftin scored and Waters scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 9Devers doubled to left, Valdez scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 36–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Refsnyder scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Wong scored on error, Refsnyder safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Witt Jr., Refsnyder safe at second on error.5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 6Perez singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Duvall homered to left (416 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Yoshida homered to center (415 feet), Turner scored and Casas scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Fair odds
- BOS -112
- KC +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.5 – 5.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +17 | BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Taylor Clarke: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +32 Elo | BOS 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 11th of 3034–33 | Road vs home | 24–4429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.