Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hicks singled to center, Henderson scored and Rutschman scored, McKenna to second.11–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 9Henderson singled to right, Urías scored, Rutschman to third.9–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 18–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 9Rutschman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Hays scored, Urías to second, Westburg out at third.8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Henderson scored on Bernardino wild pitch.7–2
- 8Henderson scored on Bernardino wild pitch.7–2
- 8Rutschman homered to right (371 feet).6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Turner hit a ground rule double, Verdugo scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 6Wong homered to left (395 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 6Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to right, Hays scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Hays singled to left, Mullins scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Fair odds
- BAL -106
- BOS +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.4 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −9 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +48 Elo | BAL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3046–25 | Road vs home | 36–3314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.