Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Westburg grounded out to shortstop, Hays scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Moniak singled to center, Rengifo scored, O'Hoppe to second.4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 9Mountcastle singled to center, O'Hearn scored, Rutschman to third.4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 9O'Hearn singled to left, Frazier scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Cabbage singled to right, Escobar scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–2
- 7Moustakas singled to right, Drury scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Drury doubled to left, Schanuel scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Mountcastle singled to left, Rutschman scored on fielding error by left fielder Grichuk.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Rutschman singled to left, Mateo scored, Rutschman to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Fair odds
- BAL -113
- LAA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.7 – 5.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −10 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +71 Elo | BAL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3044–25 | Road vs home | 32–3422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–2 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.