Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kenny RosenbergPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Drury homered to left center (405 feet).6–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 7Henderson homered to right (382 feet), Santander scored and Mountcastle scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Grichuk homered to left (381 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Hicks singled to right, Mountcastle scored, Hicks to second, Westburg to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Mountcastle singled to right, Hays scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Hays doubled to left, Mateo scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Moniak doubled to right, Stefanic scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.6 – 5.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +7 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Kenny Rosenberg (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +40 Elo | BAL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3043–25 | Road vs home | 32–3321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–2 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.