Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rengifo singled to center, Paris scored.6–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–10
- 9Wallach scored on Snead wild pitch, Paris to third on wild pitch by Snead.5–10
- 9Wallach scored on Snead wild pitch, Paris to third on wild pitch by Snead.5–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 14–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–10
- 7Butler reached on infield single to third, Langeliers scored, A. Díaz to second.4–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 7Langeliers doubled to right, Brown scored and Kemp scored.4–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–9
- 7Kemp singled to center, Gelof scored, Noda scored and Rooker scored on throwing error by center fielder Moniak, Kemp to third.4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 7Rengifo homered to right center (392 feet).4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Brown homered to center (412 feet), C. Pérez scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Noda homered to center (406 feet), Gelof scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Wallach doubled to right, Moniak scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 4.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −22 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +47 Elo | LAA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −2.230th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 22–4530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 5–4 OAK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.