Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike MoustakasBatting2-4
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Rooker homered to left center (436 feet), Noda scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Rengifo hit sacrifice fly to shortstop, Schanuel scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 4.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +14 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +35 Elo | LAA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −2.230th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–38 | Road vs home | 21–4530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 5–3 OAK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.