Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Hoppe homered to left (369 feet).2–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 8Noda doubled to center, Gelof scored.1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Ruiz homered to left center (415 feet), Allen scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 8Drury doubled to center, Ohtani scored.1–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 30–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 7J. Diaz doubled to center, Noda scored, Rooker to third.0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Gelof doubled to left, Ruiz scored and Bride scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Allen hit sacrifice fly to center, A. Díaz scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Bride singled to right, J. Diaz scored, A. Díaz to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4A. Díaz doubled to left, Rooker scored, J. Diaz to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Fair odds
- LAA -111
- OAK +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 4.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −13 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +46 Elo | LAA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −2.330th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 3032–37 | Road vs home | 20–4530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 5–2 OAK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.