Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hearn hit a ground rule double, Henderson scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Walker homered to left (414 feet), Pham scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (403 feet), Marte scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1O'Hearn singled to center, Henderson scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Fair odds
- BAL -107
- ARI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −32 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 1.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +69 Elo | BAL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3041–24 | Road vs home | 35–3214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.