Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moreno homered to left center (404 feet).7–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 37–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7Rutschman homered to right center (405 feet).7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Rutschman singled to right, McCann scored.6–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4McCann doubled to center, Frazier scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Frazier doubled to center, Urías scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Mullins homered to right (390 feet), O'Hearn scored and Hays scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Thomas grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Carroll scored, Walker out at second, Marte to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Marte doubled to right, Perdomo scored, Carroll to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -103
- ARI +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +6 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +31 Elo | BAL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3041–25 | Road vs home | 36–3214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 0–1 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.