Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker homered to left (397 feet).8–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 6Rutschman doubled to right, Urías scored and Westburg scored.8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Westburg doubled to left, Mullins scored, Urías to third.6–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Mullins singled to center, O'Hearn scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Carroll scored on Flaherty wild pitch, Marte to second on wild pitch by Flaherty.4–4
- 5Carroll scored on Flaherty wild pitch, Marte to second on wild pitch by Flaherty.4–4
- 5Marte singled to center, Perdomo scored, Carroll to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Carroll homered to right center (417 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Henderson singled to right, Frazier scored and Urías scored, Rutschman to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (419 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1O'Hearn singled to right, Henderson scored and Santander scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Fair odds
- BAL -102
- ARI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +5 | BAL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +9 Elo | BAL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3042–25 | Road vs home | 36–3314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–1 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.