Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hays homered to left (364 feet).10–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–3
- 8Santander homered to right center (391 feet), Mountcastle scored.9–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 6Moustakas hit sacrifice fly to left, Drury scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 6Hays hit sacrifice fly to left, Mateo scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 6Santander reached on infield single to third, McCann scored, Mountcastle to second, Mateo to third.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Rengifo homered to right center (408 feet), Phillips scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Hicks singled to left, Hays scored and Santander scored, Urías to second.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Hays singled to left, Mateo scored and Mountcastle scored, Santander to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Urías singled to left, Hays scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Fair odds
- BAL -113
- LAA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.6 – 5.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −17 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +59 Elo | BAL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3045–25 | Road vs home | 32–3523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 4–2 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.