Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- James McCannBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting5-5, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abreu singled to left, Yoshida scored, Story to third.13–12
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking13–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–11
- 9Story doubled to right, Rafaela scored and Casas scored, Yoshida to third.13–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul13–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul13–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 113–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul13–9
- 9Urías singled to right, Hays scored, Henderson to third.13–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 212–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–9
- 7Devers singled to left, Abreu scored, Verdugo to second.12–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 112–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–8
- 7Abreu doubled to right, Story scored and Yoshida scored.12–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–8
- 7Henderson homered to right (386 feet), Santander scored and Hicks scored.12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–6
- 6McCann homered to center (409 feet).9–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 6Westburg homered to center (406 feet).8–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 4Casas grounded out to first, Devers scored, Turner to third.7–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 27–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 4Wong scored on error, Turner safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Henderson, Turner to second, Devers to third.7–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Fair odds
- BAL -105
- BOS +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.5 – 5.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −4 | BAL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +21 Elo | BAL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3047–25 | Road vs home | 36–3416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 4–3 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.