New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Torres singled to right, Higashioka scored and LeMahieu scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6LeMahieu doubled to left, Pereira scored, Higashioka to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Casas scored on Vásquez wild pitch.0–2
- 4Casas scored on Vásquez wild pitch.0–2
- 4Devers homered to right center (394 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 5.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | NYY: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +28 Elo | BOS 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 37–3516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–8 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.