Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Casas homered to left center (402 feet), Rafaela scored and Devers scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Devers reached on infield single to third, McGuire scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4McGuire tripled to center, Urías scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Devers scored on error and Turner scored on error, Story safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Urías, Story safe at second on error.3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Frazier tripled to right, Mullins scored and Hicks scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Hicks reached on infield single to shortstop, O'Hearn scored, Mullins to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Fair odds
- BAL -105
- BOS +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.7 – 5.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +13 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +18 Elo | BAL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3048–25 | Road vs home | 36–3517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 5–3 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.