New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4
- Michael KingPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Story homered to center (404 feet), Abreu scored and Duvall scored.0–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 7Rafaela homered to right (316 feet).0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Abreu singled to left, Devers scored, Turner to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Fair odds
- BOS -110
- NYY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −16 | NYY: Michael King: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +7 Elo | BOS 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 37–3719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 3–8 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.