Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 13Merrifield reached on infield single to third, Guerrero Jr. scored.3–4
- 13Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 13Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 12Bichette hit sacrifice fly to right, Varsho scored.3–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 13–2
- 12Reyes singled to center, Verdugo scored.3–2
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Varsho tripled to center, Biggio scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Guerrero Jr. homered to left (367 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Devers homered to left (363 feet), Abreu scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Fair odds
- TOR -120
- BOS +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +1 | BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +53 Elo | TOR 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3036–36 | Road vs home | 39–3413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 7–4 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.