Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Cavan BiggioBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Biggio homered to right (345 feet).10–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 210–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 7Heim homered to left center (405 feet), Seager scored, Garver scored and Taveras scored.10–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 7Grossman hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 6Biggio hit sacrifice fly to center, Horwitz scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Heim doubled to right, Taveras scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Grossman scored on Bassitt wild pitch, Taveras to second on wild pitch by Bassitt.4–2
- 6Grossman scored on Bassitt wild pitch, Taveras to second on wild pitch by Bassitt.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Seager singled to right, Carter scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Carter homered to right (406 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Springer singled to center, Biggio scored, Kiermaier to second, Kirk to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Kirk singled to left, Schneider scored, Biggio to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Garver scored on a disengagement violation, Taveras to third on a disengagement violation.1–0
- 2Garver scored on a disengagement violation, Taveras to third on a disengagement violation.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Fair odds
- TOR -117
- TEX +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +10 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +57 Elo | TOR 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 15th of 3033–34 | Road vs home | 38–3011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.