Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Noda doubled to center, Rooker scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 35–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Langeliers homered to center (436 feet), Smith scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Ruiz homered to left center (402 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Lowe singled to right, Semien scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Ruiz singled to right, Allen scored, Ruiz out stretching at second.2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Seager homered to right center (423 feet), Semien scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Noda grounded out to first, Gelof scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Fair odds
- TEX -144
- OAK +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 5.2 – 6.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −7 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +88 Elo | TEX 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3019–50 | Road vs home | 43–296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 3–7 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.