Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4
- Ken WaldichukPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Springer singled to left, Kiermaier scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7J. Diaz singled to center, Brown scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 7Biggio walked, Schneider scored, Kirk to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.6–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 46–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Merrifield hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored, Schneider to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Schneider doubled to left, Kiermaier scored, Springer to third.4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Springer singled to center, Biggio scored and Espinal scored, Kiermaier to third.3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Kiermaier singled to left, Kirk scored, Espinal to second, Biggio to third.1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Fair odds
- TOR -122
- OAK +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.9 – 4.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +90 Elo | TOR 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.230th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3041–32 | Road vs home | 23–4630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–1 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.