Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement singled to right, Horwitz scored, Merrifield to third.7–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 9Merrifield singled to right, McCoy scored, Horwitz to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 5Goodman doubled to left, Montero scored and Rodgers scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 5Horwitz singled to left, Schneider scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Schneider doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Biggio scored on error, Guerrero Jr. safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Jones.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Goodman doubled to right, Montero scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Horwitz homered to right center (442 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Jones singled to right, McMahon scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3McMahon doubled to center, Tovar scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 64%
- Fair odds
- TOR -116
- COL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 6.0 – 5.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −33 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 1.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +97 Elo | TOR 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 6th of 3039–32 | Road vs home | 29–3724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.