Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kevin KiermaierBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schneider scored on Lawrence wild pitch.7–8
- 9Schneider scored on Lawrence wild pitch.7–8
- 9Schneider tripled to center, Springer scored.6–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–8
- 5Blackmon singled to right, B. Doyle scored.5–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 5B. Doyle tripled to right, Rodgers scored, Bouchard scored and Montero scored.5–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 4Tovar doubled to left, Bouchard scored and Montero scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 2Blackmon singled to left, Bouchard scored and Jones scored, Montero to third.5–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 2Kiermaier homered to center (438 feet).5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Espinal singled to center, Clement scored and Kirk scored, Varsho thrown out at third.4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Varsho reached on infield single to shortstop, Merrifield scored, Clement to second, Kirk to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Merrifield singled to right, Springer scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.9 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 6th of 3039–31 | Road vs home | 28–3724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.