Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9McMahon doubled to center, Díaz scored.13–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play13–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 113–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul13–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul13–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging13–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging13–9
- 9Díaz singled to left, Doyle scored.13–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 113–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul13–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–8
- 9Bouchard grounded out to third, Montero scored.13–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–7
- 9Jones scored on error, Montero safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Clement.13–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–6
- 9Springer singled to right, Clement scored, Kiermaier to second.13–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 213–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–5
- 9Clement tripled to right, Merrifield scored and Varsho scored.12–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–5
- 8Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Schneider scored.10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–5
- 7Merrifield doubled to right, Kirk scored.9–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 39–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 29–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 19–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 7Kirk doubled to left, Belt scored, Springer scored and Schneider scored.8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 7Schneider doubled to left, Kiermaier scored, Springer to third.5–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.5 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −15 | TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +74 Elo | TOR 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 7th of 3038–31 | Road vs home | 28–3624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.