Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Cavan BiggioBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Butler homered to right center (403 feet), Langeliers scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 16–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 10Horwitz doubled to left, Biggio scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.6–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 10Biggio singled to center, Espinal scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 10Espinal doubled to left, McCoy scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7J. Diaz homered to center (397 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Noda homered to right (402 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Butler homered to center (417 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Biggio singled to left, Springer scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Springer doubled to right, Varsho scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Kiermaier grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Kirk scored, Clement out at second, Varsho to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Fair odds
- TOR -121
- OAK +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +6 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +84 Elo | TOR 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.230th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3040–32 | Road vs home | 23–4530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.