Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Kevin SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schneider homered to left (393 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Smith homered to left center (398 feet), J. Diaz scored and C. Pérez scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4C. Pérez homered to left (410 feet), Noda scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Clement singled to right, Biggio scored, Clement to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Fair odds
- TOR -122
- OAK +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.8 – 4.4 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −7 | TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +81 Elo | TOR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3042–32 | Road vs home | 23–4730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 4–1 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.