Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Kevin KiermaierBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Biggio singled to left, Merrifield scored, Espinal to second.2–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Espinal reached on bunt single to first, Varsho scored, Merrifield to second.2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Kiermaier homered to right (361 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Schneider scored on Ragans wild pitch.2–2
- 6Schneider scored on Ragans wild pitch.2–2
- 6Guerrero Jr. scored on Ragans wild pitch, Schneider to third on wild pitch by Ragans.2–1
- 6Guerrero Jr. scored on Ragans wild pitch, Schneider to third on wild pitch by Ragans.2–1
- 6Perez grounded out to shortstop, Witt Jr. scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 6Witt Jr. doubled to left, Isbel scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 64%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- KC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +3 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +101 Elo | TOR 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.12nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–53 | Road vs home | 37–3012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–5 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.