Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Yoan MoncadaBatting1-2
- Jesse ScholtensPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Royals- Edward OlivaresBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thompson reached on infield single to first, Sosa scored on throwing error by first baseman Beaty.1–12
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–12
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–12
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 30–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–12
- 5Olivares homered to center (428 feet), Garcia scored.0–12
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–12
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 5Garcia doubled to center, Loftin scored.0–10
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 5Loftin doubled to left, Massey scored and Waters scored.0–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 5Waters singled to right, Fermin scored, Massey to third.0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Massey grounded into fielder's choice to second, Melendez scored, Velázquez out at second, Fermin to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Velázquez homered to left (419 feet), Fermin scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Perez hit sacrifice fly to second, Garcia scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.2 – 5.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +17 | CHW: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +27 Elo | KC 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 27th of 3025–44 | Road vs home | 24–4529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 4–3 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.