Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Royals- Edward OlivaresBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi singled to right, Lee scored, Andrus to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Olivares homered to center (423 feet), Loftin scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Colás homered to right (386 feet).5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Moncada homered to left center (433 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Vaughn homered to left (364 feet), Robert Jr. scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Velázquez homered to center (439 feet), Massey scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Sheets doubled to center, Vaughn scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 48%
- Fair odds
- KC -102
- CHW +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.5 – 5.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −18 | CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +13 Elo | CHW 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 27th of 3025–46 | Road vs home | 26–4529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 4–5 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.