Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garcia scored on a balk, Melendez to second on a balk, Witt Jr. to third on a balk.6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 9Garcia scored on a balk, Melendez to second on a balk, Witt Jr. to third on a balk.6–7
- 9Witt Jr. doubled to right, Blanco scored, Garcia to third.6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 6Massey grounded out to second, Velázquez scored, Loftin to third.6–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 5Melendez homered to right (412 feet).6–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 4Massey homered to right center (441 feet).6–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 4Velázquez homered to right center (392 feet).6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Melendez singled to center, Garcia scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Vaughn homered to center (437 feet).6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Lee homered to left (415 feet), Andrus scored and Colás scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Moncada homered to center (430 feet), Vaughn scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Fair odds
- KC -103
- CHW +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.4 – 5.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +9 Elo | KC 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 27th of 3025–45 | Road vs home | 25–4529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 4–4 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.