Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Edward OlivaresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Springer homered to right center (381 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Biggio doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Springer singled to center, Kirk scored and Varsho scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Olivares homered to left center (431 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Springer homered to left center (380 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 65%
- Fair odds
- TOR -150
- KC +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 5.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | KC: James McArthur: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +110 Elo | TOR 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–52 | Road vs home | 36–3012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–4 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.