Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean NewcombPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Leody TaverasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Grossman scored on F. Pérez wild pitch, Lowe to second, Garver to third.2–3
- 7Grossman scored on F. Pérez wild pitch, Lowe to second on wild pitch by F. Pérez, Garver to third on wild pitch by F. Pérez.2–3
- 7Gelof homered to left (377 feet), Kemp scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 6Taveras singled to center, Garver scored, Lowe to third.0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Lowe singled to center, Grossman scored, Garver to third.0–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Fair odds
- TEX -143
- OAK +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 5.3 – 6.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −12 | OAK: Sean Newcomb (no track record yet) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +91 Elo | TEX 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3020–50 | Road vs home | 43–307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 4–7 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.