Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting4-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Seager homered to right (353 feet).4–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 6Semien homered to left center (412 feet).4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Carter hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Smith scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 6J. Smith tripled to right, Taveras scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5Lowe singled to left, Semien scored on error and Seager scored on error, Lowe safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Kemp.4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 3Brown scored on error, Butler safe at first on fielding error by third baseman J. Smith, Butler safe at second on error, J. Diaz safe at third on error.4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 3J. Diaz singled to center, Noda scored, Brown to second.3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Brown singled to right, Gelof scored, Noda to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Soderstrom homered to right (381 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Grossman hit a ground rule double, Garver scored and Lowe scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Semien homered to left (396 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 66%
- Fair odds
- TEX -146
- OAK +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 5.0 – 5.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +112 Elo | TEX 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3020–51 | Road vs home | 44–306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 4–8 TEX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.