Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Robbie GrossmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schneider homered to left center (418 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 9Jankowski singled to left, Carter scored, Seager to second, J. Smith to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Clement grounded out to first, Biggio scored, Espinal to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 7Biggio singled to right, Horwitz scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Seager doubled to right, J. Smith scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7J. Smith doubled to center, Taveras scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Heim hit sacrifice fly to right, Seager scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Grossman homered to left (375 feet), Seager scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- TEX +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −16 | TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +7 Elo | TOR 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3034–34 | Road vs home | 38–3112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–1 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.