Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Santiago EspinalBatting2-3
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garver homered to center (406 feet), Carter scored and Grossman scored.10–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 6Carter singled to center, Lowe scored, J. Smith thrown out at third.7–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5Grossman homered to left (391 feet), Seager scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Lowe homered to center (420 feet), Grossman scored and Heim scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Heim singled to left, Seager scored, Grossman to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -112
- TEX +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3035–34 | Road vs home | 38–3213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 4–1 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.