Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-4
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (400 feet), Varsho scored and Bichette scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -116
- BOS +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +6 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.25th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 12th of 3036–35 | Road vs home | 38–3413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 7–3 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.