Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Lowe scored, Taveras to third.9–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 8Grossman walked, Seager scored, Taveras to second, Lowe to third.8–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 48–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 37–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Lowe singled to center, Carter scored and Semien scored, Seager to second.7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Semien doubled to left, Duran scored, Carter to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Heim homered to center (425 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Seager doubled to left, Semien scored and Duran scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (426 feet), Bichette scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Seager homered to right center (401 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -110
- TEX +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +16 Elo | TOR 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 10th of 3036–34 | Road vs home | 38–3313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 5–1 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.