New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Jihwan BaeBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cabrera singled to right, Volpe scored, Peraza to third.7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 9Volpe grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Judge scored on error and Torres scored on throwing error by second baseman Bae, Florial out at second.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 9Florial walked, LeMahieu scored, Torres to second, Judge to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 44–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 33–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Bae scored on error and Palacios scored, Hayes safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Torres, Reynolds safe at third on error.3–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Bae singled to right, Andujar scored, Palacios to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Judge singled to center, Rortvedt scored, LeMahieu to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6LeMahieu singled to center, Cabrera scored, Rortvedt to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Reynolds singled to right, Peguero scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -105
- NYY +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +6 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +10 Elo | NYY 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 37–3821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.