Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Allan WinansPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Olson singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored and Albies scored, Riley to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Acuña Jr. singled to center, Arcia scored and Harris II scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Olson grounded out to second, Albies scored, Riley to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Suwinski doubled to center, Reynolds scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Reynolds doubled to right, Bae scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -141
- PIT +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.1 – 5.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −18 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Allan Winans: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +98 Elo | ATL 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.26th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 46–253rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 3–3 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.