St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman hit sacrifice fly to right, Gorman scored.5–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 9Winn singled to center, Burleson scored, Nootbaar to second, Gorman to third.4–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 7d'Arnaud homered to center (407 feet), Rosario scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to center (406 feet).3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Harris II homered to right center (442 feet).3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Olson homered to center (410 feet).3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 2Edman singled to center, Baker scored and Gorman scored, Edman to second, Knizner to third.3–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Knizner hit by pitch, Walker scored, Gorman to second, Baker to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Rosario singled to right, Albies scored and Olson scored, Rosario to second.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to center (426 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 69%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.2 – 6.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +7 | STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +138 Elo | ATL 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 24th of 3030–38 | Road vs home | 44–243rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–3 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.