St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gorman homered to right center (403 feet).10–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 39–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 8Acuña Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Harris II scored, Arcia to third.9–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 39–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 8Arcia doubled to left, Rosario scored, Harris II to third.9–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 8Ozuna homered to left center (422 feet).9–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 39–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 29–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 19–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–3
- 6Olson homered to center (448 feet).9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Riley homered to center (421 feet).9–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 6Goldschmidt singled to right, Edman scored, Winn to second.9–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 6Winn grounded into fielder's choice to second, O'Neill scored, Edman third.8–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 6Edman doubled to right, Walker scored, O'Neill to third.7–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 67%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.0 – 5.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −6 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +124 Elo | ATL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 3028–38 | Road vs home | 44–221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–3 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.