St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gorman homered to center (414 feet), Nootbaar scored and Goldschmidt scored.11–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 7Riley homered to center (420 feet).8–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 7Contreras homered to left center (397 feet).8–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 6Harris II singled to right, Murphy scored and Rosario scored, Arcia to third.7–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 6Olson homered to right center (427 feet).7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 6Winn homered to left (366 feet).7–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Arcia grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ozuna scored, Murphy out at second, Rosario to third.6–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Ozuna doubled to center, Olson scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Arenado scored, Contreras out at second.6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Contreras singled to left, Gorman scored, Arenado to third.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 66%
- Fair odds
- ATL -147
- STL +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.1 – 5.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +4 | STL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +115 Elo | ATL 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3029–38 | Road vs home | 44–233rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–3 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.