Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suwinski homered to right (393 feet), Hayes scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 5Acuña Jr. singled to right, Arcia scored.0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Rosario homered to right (392 feet), Olson scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Acuña Jr. homered to center (455 feet).0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Arcia singled to left, Rosario scored, d'Arnaud to second.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3d'Arnaud singled to left, Olson scored and Ozuna scored, Rosario to second.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Rosario singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Ozuna to second, Olson to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 65%
- Fair odds
- ATL -142
- PIT +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.1 – 5.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +108 Elo | ATL 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3031–38 | Road vs home | 45–243rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.