Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4
- Josiah GrayPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rivas homered to center (411 feet).0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Suwinski homered to right (366 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Fair odds
- PIT -112
- WSH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.7 – 5.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −1 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +11 Elo | PIT 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3034–38 | Road vs home | 36–3821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–4 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.