Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jackson RutledgePitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ruiz reached on infield single to first, Blankenhorn scored, L. García to second.6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Smith homered to right (376 feet), Thomas scored.5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Thomas doubled to left, Abrams scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 5Millas homered to right center (405 feet).2–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 4Reynolds homered to right (389 feet), Bae scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Rivas doubled to right, Palacios scored, Rivas out stretching at third.1–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 1Peguero singled to left, Suwinski scored, Palacios to second.1–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Palacios singled to right, Hayes scored, Suwinski to third.1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Suwinski singled to left, Reynolds scored, Hayes to third.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Hayes doubled to right, Bae scored, Reynolds to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Fair odds
- PIT -111
- WSH +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.7 – 5.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −3 | WSH: Jackson Rutledge (no track record yet) · PIT: Colin Selby: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +12 Elo | PIT 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 35–3823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.