Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Andre JacksonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bae doubled to right, Andujar scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Abrams homered to right (383 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 35–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Smith homered to center (423 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4L. García grounded into fielder's choice to second, Meneses scored, Vargas out at second, Blankenhorn to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Meneses singled to right, Ruiz scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Reynolds singled to center, Triolo scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Abrams homered to right center (417 feet), Young scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.9 – 5.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | 0 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Andre Jackson: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +44 Elo | PIT 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 17th of 3033–36 | Road vs home | 34–3723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.